If you want to catch up with earlier episodes of this blog article series, here is a link collection:
Finding Innovators as a forecast for our future revenue
Every 2 weeks, we have an investor presentation where we can collect the investor’s feedback about our current efforts. Last time, we have told him about our potential features and that we have a spoken agreement of one customer to purchase our solution if we implement them. As the logical next step, we announced that we will now need to find similar customers who are willing to commit to our solution by signing a letter of intent (LOI) – that would be a strong signal for our investor!
Two days later, we had a written letter of intent from the first customer (as an informal mail but good enough). Hooray! 🙂 But no time to stop here, we cannot create a business on the foundation of only one customer, so we need to get more LOIs like that. To visualize the way forward, here is the innovation adoption lifecycle, taken from Wikipedia:
CC BY 2.5 , Link
If we assume that the fraction of innovators is 2.5% like shown in this graph, we can fairly well predict the expected revenue of our business: take the expected revenue from the signed LOIs and multiply it by 40 (40 x 2.5% = 100%) and you have an idea of how much revenue the business will generate after acquiring all customers that we can reach. Not exactly accurate but a professional forecast based on numbers. And investors love numbers!
Conversion pipeline “CAD to VR”
One thing we learned from the customer who signed the LOI is that apart from integrating his ERP system into our VR interaction room (see part 7 of this article series), he would need a simple way to
a) see the point clouds generated with his 3D scanner into a VR meeting room and
b) import the CAD models of his constructions into the room to discuss them with the involved parties.
Luckily, this is an industry standard problem that is known since years (if not decades) and has been solved in many ways. There are startups like Metaverse with their conversion sofware piXYZ from Paris and standalone tools like CAD Exchanger or FreeCAD.
At this point of our innovation project, it would be quite expensive to create this features, so following the principle “fake it until you make it ” we just evaluated by using one or more of the above tools that we are capable of addressing this need in principal. And guess what – it is not an issue, just hard work!
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